Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a bold prediction on Thursday, claiming that the company’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology will surpass the safety of human drivers by the second quarter of 2025. In a live session on X, Musk expressed confidence that, within three months, Tesla’s FSD will outperform the average human driver in terms of accident rates, becoming at least 10 times safer over time. He further claimed that future versions of the software would eventually eliminate crashes altogether.
Currently, Tesla’s FSD requires active supervision from the driver, meaning the technology is not fully autonomous yet. However, Musk has consistently emphasized that the technology is on the verge of reaching a point where full autonomy is achievable, enabling Tesla vehicles to drive without human intervention. Despite the progress, many are skeptical of Musk’s optimism due to past overestimates and missed deadlines.
For instance, in 2019, Musk made headlines by predicting that Tesla would have operational robotaxis on the road by 2020. That ambitious timeline never materialized, and the company is still working towards achieving true autonomy. More recently, Musk said Tesla plans to deploy self-driving Model 3 and Model Y vehicles in Texas and California by 2025, assuming it receives the necessary regulatory approvals.
While Tesla has made significant strides in the development of FSD, its progress has not been without controversy. This week, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) launched an investigation into approximately 2.6 million Tesla vehicles equipped with FSD after a complaint was filed about an accident caused by the “Actually Smart Summon” feature. This feature allows a Tesla owner to remotely summon their car to their location or move it to another nearby area, such as a parking lot, using the Tesla mobile app.
The NHTSA probe is part of a broader investigation into Tesla’s self-driving technology, as the regulator has expressed concern about the safety of FSD in real-world conditions. Earlier in October, the NHTSA opened another investigation into 2.4 million Tesla vehicles after receiving reports of four crashes involving Tesla cars with FSD engaged. In these incidents, the vehicles reportedly struggled with reduced roadway visibility due to sun glare, fog, or airborne dust, which caused them to fail to respond appropriately to hazards.
One of these crashes resulted in the death of a pedestrian, raising alarms about the safety of FSD when dealing with unexpected road conditions. Although Tesla has defended its technology, claiming that the incidents highlight the need for continued software improvement, these investigations add to the growing scrutiny surrounding autonomous driving systems.
Musk’s bold claims about FSD’s future have sparked both excitement and skepticism within the industry. While Tesla has made remarkable progress in driver assistance technology, the road to full autonomy remains challenging. Regulatory hurdles, public perception, and technical limitations must all be overcome before Musk’s vision of crash-free, fully autonomous driving becomes a reality.
Despite these challenges, Musk’s prediction about Tesla’s FSD has set the stage for intense debate and anticipation in the coming months. As Tesla continues to push forward with its ambitions for self-driving technology, the world will be watching to see if Musk’s forecasts will finally come to fruition or if history will repeat itself with further delays.
